Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1630 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1630 · MCO → MIA

departs 12:54 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.78 in

MIA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1630 · MCO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?