Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1780 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1780 · DCA → BTV

departs 10:09 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BTV?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1780 · DCA → BTV

Odds over time

How late will it get to BTV?