Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1925 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1925 · CLT → JAX

departs 10:48 AM ET · arrives 12:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 233 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling233 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.61 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1925 · CLT → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?