Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1944 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1944 · TPA → DCA

departs 7:26 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.92 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1944 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?