Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1974 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1974 · TPA → CLT

departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.93 in

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1974 · TPA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?