Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1982 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 1982 · TPA → CLT

departs 4:14 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±6 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.56 in

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1982 · TPA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?