Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2169 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2169 · ORD → LAS

departs 6:51 AM CT · arrives 9:02 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2169 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?