Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2458 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2458 · MIA → LAX

departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 12:36 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2458 · MIA → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?