AA 2586 · SRQ → CLT

departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.9 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.90 in

CLT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2586 · SRQ → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?