Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2604 · CLT → SRQ

departs 7:25 PM ET · arrives 9:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day

↑ 7pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2604 · CLT → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?