Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2917 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 2917 · MCO → CLT

departs 12:02 PM ET · arrives 1:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MCO that day

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.18 in

CLT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2917 · MCO → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?