Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3040 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 3040 · ORD → MIA

departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 10:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3040 · ORD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?