AA 3072 · RDU → CLT

took off 2:13 PM ET · expected to land 2:42 PM ET (scheduled 1:59 PM ET → 3:02 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3072 · RDU → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?