AA 3148 · PHX → MIA

departs 4:39 PM MT · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3148 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?