AA 323 · BNA → MIA

departs 6:41 PM CT · arrives 10:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 323 · BNA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?