Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 616 · ORD → ATL

departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 616 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?