Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

AA 616 · ORD → ATL

departs 12:48 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 616 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?