Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 678 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 678 · MIA → IAH

departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 678 · MIA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?