Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 874 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 874 · AUA → CLT

departs 2:30 PM AST · arrives 6:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUA

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 874 · AUA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?