Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

AA 9830 · SDF → CLT

departs 10:39 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9830 · SDF → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?