AS 457 · SEA → PSP

departs 10:23 AM PT · arrives 1:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PSP more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PSP?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

PSP (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 457 · SEA → PSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSP?