AS 586 · FAI → ANC

departs 9:41 AM AKT · arrives 10:55 AM AKT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at FAI that day

↓ 9am departures from FAI are usually not late

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 586 · FAI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?