Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 64 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 64 · JNU → PSG

departs 1:07 PM AKDT · arrives 1:52 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at PSG more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PSG?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.0 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at PSG that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.10 in

PSG (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 64 · JNU → PSG

Odds over time

How late will it get to PSG?