Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
DL 2264 · TPA → MSP
departs 3:04 PM ET · arrives 5:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 18%
Fri 10/9 20%
Sat 10/10 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.93 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.