Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2925
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 2925 · BWI → TPA
departs 8:12 AM ET · arrives 11:06 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 10/4 27%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.