Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3451 · MIA → TLH
departs 7:41 PM ET · arrives 9:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 19%
Sat 10/10 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at TLH that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TLH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
TLH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.