Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3551 · ORD → MSP
departs 8:28 AM CT · arrives 9:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 15%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
MSP is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.