Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3553 · MIA → MSY
departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 4:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MIA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.