Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 3553 · MSY → MIA
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 8:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.08 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.