Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4023 · MIA → JAX
departs 5:41 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 25%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
14%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
14%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
No breakdown for this forecast yet.
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.70 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.