Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4024
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4024 · MIA → JAX
departs 8:02 AM ET · arrives 9:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 10%
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.