Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4054
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4054 · ORD → SAV
departs 8:08 AM CT · arrives 11:14 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 15%
Sat 10/10 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAV that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAV (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.