Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
MQ 4209 · MIA → BNA
departs 2:37 PM ET · arrives 4:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.