Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

OH 5411 · DCA → IAH

departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 10:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5411 · DCA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?