Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5586 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

OH 5586 · SBN → CLT

departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ SBN is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

SBN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5586 · SBN → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?