Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 5866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
PT 5866 · ORH → PHL
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 10%
Sat 10/10 18%
Sun 10/11 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1.3d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
ORH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.