Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2160
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
QX 2160 · SFO → PAE
departs 5:16 PM PT · arrives 7:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.4d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.