Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2160
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
QX 2160 · SFO → PAE
departs 5:05 PM PT · arrives 7:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.