Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Today
QX 2221 · SMF → SAN
departs 8:04 AM PT · arrives 9:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/7 19%
Thu 10/8 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.0d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.