Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
QX 2221 · SMF → SAN
departs 8:04 AM PT · arrives 9:47 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.