QX 2437 · PAE → SAN

departs 8:27 AM PT · arrives 11:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PAE that day

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2437 · PAE → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?