Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2437
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
QX 2437 · PAE → SAN
departs 9:09 AM PT · arrives 12:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/6 31%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 23%
Sun 10/11 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from PAE are usually not late
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.