QX 2490 · PDX → PAE

departs 10:56 AM PT · arrives 12:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PAE that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from PDX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PAE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2490 · PDX → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?