Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 485 · SAV → ORD

departs 8:44 AM ET · arrives 10:08 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAV that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 8am departures from SAV are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAV (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.25 in

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 485 · SAV → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?