Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 182
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 182 · SJO → MCO
departs 9:06 AM CST · arrives 2:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SJO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJO
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJO (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.