Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 182
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 182 · SJO → MCO
departs 9:04 AM CST · arrives 2:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SJO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,133 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJO (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
MCO (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.