Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3418 · BNA → MIA
departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.