Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 3476 · MCO → SRQ
departs 7:03 PM ET · arrives 7:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.