Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 3476 · MCO → SRQ
departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 46%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
0.9 in of rain forecast at SRQ that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip 0.61 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.