WN 4950 · MCO → MIA

departs 9:03 PM ET · arrives 10:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.37 in

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4950 · MCO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?